» economy http://www.catboant.com Sun, 07 Mar 2010 14:08:18 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 en hourly 1 Global Power Will Shift from West To East http://www.catboant.com/2010/01/02/will-the-next-decade-become-the-chinese-decade/ http://www.catboant.com/2010/01/02/will-the-next-decade-become-the-chinese-decade/#comments Sat, 02 Jan 2010 13:03:54 +0000 ulrike http://www.catboant.com/?p=537 In today’s Welt online edition (it is in German) Niall Ferguson shares his thoughts on why the “Western World” will loose its world dominance – which it had held for 500 years – and the East, mainly China will surpass.

The major reasons for this shift are (from China’s point of view):

- China’s enormous financial resources (especially in comparison to the US),
- its ceaseless economic growth
- its human capital, its manpower

Or from the US-point of view as Ferguson points it: “A manpower deficit (not enough boots on the ground in Iraq), an attention deficit (not enough public enthusiasm for long-term occupations of conquered countries) and above all a financial deficit (not enough savings relative to investment and not enough taxation relative to public expenditure).”

Together with Moritz Schularick Ferguson coined the term “Chimerica” (China and America) in 2006 describing one of the key issues that caused the financial crises in the Western world: the fact that the US current account deficit was mostly financed by Chinese banks!

Niall Ferguson is also aware of the problems China is facing, e.g. democracy and political issues, but he concludes without any doubts that China will dominate the next decade.

Reading and thinking about the article amplifies many phrases I’ve heard in my last conversations regarding China.

P.S. Just found an english version of the article! Thanks to twitter:-)

]]> http://www.catboant.com/2010/01/02/will-the-next-decade-become-the-chinese-decade/feed/ 0 The Post Everything Economy http://www.catboant.com/2009/12/08/the-post-everything-economy/ http://www.catboant.com/2009/12/08/the-post-everything-economy/#comments Tue, 08 Dec 2009 21:54:52 +0000 ulrike http://www.catboant.com/?p=418 A conversation with Stowe Boyd. Stowe is probably best known for his “operating manual for the social revolution = /message, is a writer, thinker and consultant based in New York to where he just recently moved.

The following points outline the interview which I put together on a youtube player.

01stowe_boyd
introduction

02stowe_boyd
We are at the beginning of a new time and the Internet plays a most important role in there!

03stowe_boyd
Yes, the Internet is mainstream!

04stowe_boyd
“the post everything economy” – openness is key!

05stowe_boyd
what are the major problems we have to solve and how can we solve them?

06stowe_boyd
harnessing many eyes

07stowe_boyd
are businesses, institutions, organizations ready for the change and what kind of impact will this change has on their structure.

08stowe_boyd
collective intelligence or what is the web good for?

And here is the entire story – all in all close to one hour!

]]> http://www.catboant.com/2009/12/08/the-post-everything-economy/feed/ 0 Economy & Markets http://www.catboant.com/2009/12/08/economy-markets/ http://www.catboant.com/2009/12/08/economy-markets/#comments Tue, 08 Dec 2009 21:48:25 +0000 ulrike http://www.catboant.com/?p=415 The world’s economy is an ungovernable, hyper-complex, and constantly changing matrix of relationships between companies, individuals, financial institutions, and governments. It has long moved away from being a straight forward exchange of goods and services for money. And perhaps most important are the side-effects of complexity, coupled with the globalization of industries like manufacturing, food, energy, and services.

We are moving into an economic era where the laws of complexity — more than classical economic theory — will be a better means to understand, or to predict, economic behavior at the macro level. At the most basic level, the interconnection of so much of our world’s economic infrastructure — stock markets, banking, capital transfers, governmental loans, manufacturing investments, outsourced
manufacturing, processing of raw materials and energy production — has led to a greatly increased likelihood of disastrous oscillations in the various interconnected market sectors.

The only question is whether there is any solution to the danger inherent in this new world order other than decoupling and decomplexifying? Are we capable of taking the steps necessary to decrease the risk of catastrophe? By Stowe Boyd

Related conversations:

David Weinberger
Don Tapscott

Related websites:

More to come

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